Shock and Awe and the Upside of Mass Deportation

By Norman Franklin

Norman Franklin

The mass deportation sweeps have begun. The first week of shock and awe was intended to demonstrate America’s resolve to rid our land of the undocumented and unwanted. However, the execution was less than impressive. ICE made only 538 arrests— a small beginning, considering the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living under the constant threat of deportation. Two military planes were used to transport 79 Guatemalan migrants back to their country of origin, while Mexico refused a deportation flight due to administrative issues. Alongside these diplomatic challenges, large-scale deportations would require significant resources— more personnel, detention facilities, and complex transportation logistics.

Once ICE sweeps capture large numbers of undocumented individuals, continuing immediate deportations becomes impractical. The need for more military planes—or other options—will become evident.

People often struggle to fully grasp the impulsive, emotion-driven solutions that attempt to address frustrations. We tend to overlook the details of unintended consequences. Mass deportation, in this sense, oversimplifies a deeply complex issue.

According to the American Immigration Council, deporting 11 million immigrants could cost at least $315 billion, with projections of up to $968 billion over a decade. This cost would likely be prohibitive to the fiscal conservative Republican government. The Center for American Progress estimates that the cumulative impact of deportations could shrink GDP by $1.6 trillion over 20 years.

Undocumented immigrants contribute approximately $20 billion annually in federal, state, and local taxes, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. The tax revenue loss over the next decade is projected to be $200 billion.

The $968 billion estimate includes the cumulative costs from increased transportation, additional detention capacity, expanded legal processes, and more ICE personnel. This staggering sum is compounded by the indirect losses in GDP, tax revenue, and overall economic contraction.

Experts argue that the negative impacts on industries, local economies, and the broader labor market significantly outweigh any short-term benefits that may come from purifying society.

However, there is an upside to the downside of mass deportation. While jobs will be lost, rural communities devastated, and millions in revenue erased for many, the private corrections industry stands to profit immensely from pre-deportation housing—i.e., the incarceration of individuals. This serves as a stark reminder of how systems can profit from human suffering.

Stock prices for GEO Group and CoreCivic saw exponential growth following Donald Trump’s election, as well as after the announcement of Tom Homan as “border czar.” Similarly, prison company stocks skyrocketed in 2016 with Trump’s first election to Commander-in-Chief. Trump's campaign promises of executing "the largest deportation operation in the history of our country" further fueled this financial growth.

Forty-three percent of GEO Group’s revenue comes from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) contracts. CoreCivic reports 30% of its revenue from ICE contracts. George Zoley, Executive Chairman of GEO Group, stated on a November 7 earnings call, “The GEO Group was built for this unique moment in our country’s history and the opportunities it will bring.” The company’s transportation subsidiaries are likely to secure more contracts as large-scale deportations unfold.

The shock and awe of immediate deportations in the first week is unsustainable. Deportation is not an instant process. Undocumented individuals caught in the immigration system will need to be moved between various facilities and court hearings. As GEO Group's chairman remarked on the same earnings call, “We believe we have the capabilities to expand the provisions of these services to assist ICE in moving several hundreds of thousands of additional individuals if needed.”

The Trump administration’s "law and order" agenda plays into this narrative, increasing profits for private prison companies. Their promise to "put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars, and surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities" reflects a broader, often subjective, approach to law enforcement. With the pardon of 1,500 January 6th offenders, the concept of "law and order" seems more like an oxymoron— or perhaps an example of selective enforcement.

Mass deportation will disrupt lives, families, and rural communities, yet it will simultaneously generate economic activity. One principle of capitalism is the pursuit of profit, and in this case, that pursuit is deeply intertwined with the consequences of mass deportation.